The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (henceforth, PDE as in its Portuguese acronym) is an annual informative document elaborated by the EPE under the guidelines and support of the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
The main objective of the PDE 2027 is to indicate the perspectives of the expansion of the energy industry in the horizon up to 2027, from the government's point of view.
This Executive Summary presents a condensed version of the main analyses conducted in the document.
Key takeways from the reference case:
The expected expansion of the energy industry in Brazil will require total investment amount of R$ 1,816 billion, being R$ 1,382 billion in Oil & Gas, R$ 393 billion in Power Supply, and R$ 41 billion in the Supply of Liquid Biofuels.
Brazil's per capita GDP is expected to grow 2.2% per year on average from 2018 to 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 2.8% per year for GDP. As a result, the final energy consumption is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.3% per year up to 2027.
The country's trend of increasing electrification is maintained. Natural gas, sugar cane derivatives and biodiesel also gain importance over the period.
In 2027, energy efficiency will reach 19 million toe, which represents 8% of Brazil's final energy consumption in 2017. The Distributed Generation is expected to reach 12 GW installed in 2027, which will require R$ 60 billion in investments.
The system keeps the predominance of renewable and non-greenhouse gases emitting sources, amounting up to 80% of total capacity. The need of additional power capacity to cope with net peak load appears from 2022 onwards, totaling about 13,200 MW in 2027, which could be provided by storage technologies or flexible thermal power plants.
Total investments in the transmission power system are expected to reach about R$ 108 billion, with R$ 73 billion in transmission lines and R$ 35 billion in substations,
Oil production is expected to reach 5 million barrels per day in 2027, approximately twice the value registered in 2017. Despite being an important player in the oil markets in the near future, Brazil will continue to show a high percentage of renewable energy sources in its energy matrix (47% in 2027).
Brazil is expected to continue as a net importer of the main oil products, over the period under study, especially imports of naphtha, aviation kerosene (jet fuel), and diesel oil.
The net production of natural gas will grow from 65 million m³/day in 2017 to 111 million m³/day in 2027. Investments related to the expansion of the natural gas supply are estimated at about R$ 8 billion, of which about R$ 3 billion in planned projects and R$ 5 billion in indicative projects.
The total ethanol supply reaches 45 billion liters in 2027, with 32 billion liters referring to hydrated ethanol.
The expected expansion of the energy supply and consumption over the 10-year period meets and exceeds the goal for 2020 and the trajectory stipulated in the Brazilian NDC for the energy sector. Thus, it can be stated that PDE 2027 is fully aligned with the PNMC (Climate Change National Policy) and with the international commitments assumed by Brazil in the Paris Agreement.
PDE 2027 - Executive Summary
The full version of the document (with additional material such as data, graphs, figures, methodological notes, among others) is available on the EPE's website: (http://www.epe.gov.br)